Probabilities

This post is going to be more philosophical.  I’ve been thinking a lot lately about probabilities and how it seems like a lot of events with a probability of roughly 1-3% keep happening.  For example, my daughter was born early due to PPROM (preterm premature rupture of membranes; my water broke at 33.5 weeks).  I had no risk factors or warning signs for this, making my risk for sudden PPROM roughly 2%.

My daughter has autism.  We have absolutely no family history of autism, and she is a girl (autism is much more common in boys).  The probability that she would have autism given this profile is roughly 1%.

A few other things I don’t want to write about have also happened recently with similar nominal odds attached to them.  It’s made me think that it isn’t so crazy to worry about things that have a 1% chance of occurring, since in my experience plenty of them occur.  A 99% chance no longer seems like a sure thing.

I realized though that we all take many, many 1% or less gambles every day and usually we win, meaning usually we are in the 99% (about, say, 99% of the time!).  Once I started thinking about all the thing that could have happened but didn’t, I realized that maybe it’s not that strange that I “lost” two 1-3% chances.  After all, there is probably at least a 1% chance that I would get in a car accident sometime in the last year.  Didn’t happen.  Many other pregnancy complications that didn’t happen to me had 1% or higher chances of occurring.  There’s probably a roughly 1-3% chance that my husband or I would have developed cancer by this time in our lives, and that hasn’t happened.

For every real-life gamble lost, every disaster or bad diagnosis, there are many more gambles won and disasters averted.  When something bad happens, it’s easy to ask “why me?” but maybe it’s better to remember the things that didn’t happen instead.  For every 100 1% chances you take, you should expect to lose one.  Most of the 1% chances we take we don’t even realize we’re taking, so it always seems like a shock when that 1% thing happens to us.  But we all have to lose sometime.  Really, these things should come as a shock, because if we spent all our time anticipating all the 1% gambles we could lose we’d all go crazy.  I guess we just have to expect the occasional shock in life.

When I look at things this way, having PPROM and a chid with high-functioning autism seems pretty good, compared to all the other disasters that could have happened.

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